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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers rising together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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